Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Spezza 54.7% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 62.7%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 59.5%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 54.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Last 10: Jarnkrok 6-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
4
Jarnkrok
Spezza
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
4
2
Jarnkrok
Spezza
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
4
Jarnkrok
Spezza
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,352)
54.4% (7,990)
-5.1%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
56.8% (1,726)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (625)
52.7% (643)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Jarnkrok is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,270).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Home
50.6% (2,253)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
45.3% (1,982)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Spezza
P1
47.8%
55.7%
P2
48.0%
54.4%
P3
48.8%
54.1%
OT
40.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 8, 2016 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 3 | 06:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |