Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 46.3% vs Spezza 54.4% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 63.3%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 80.1%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 67.5%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Last 6: Jarnkrok 1-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Jarnkrok
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Jarnkrok
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (560)
53.2% (763)
-4.3%
Power Play
52.5% (61)
60.9% (197)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
33.7% (178)
57.1% (21)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Jarnkrok is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Spezza
Home
49.5% (396)
57.5% (518)
Away
42.2% (403)
51.8% (463)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Spezza
P1
41.6%
55.4%
P2
42.8%
54.1%
P3
52.5%
55.5%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
38.8%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
45.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |