Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 46.3% vs Thornton 52.6% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 54.3%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 74.1%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 63.6%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Jarnkrok
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Jarnkrok
Thornton
Last 5: Jarnkrok 1-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Jarnkrok
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jarnkrok
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (560)
51.8% (577)
-2.9%
Power Play
52.5% (61)
57.7% (168)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
33.7% (178)
37.5% (8)
-3.8%
On power play, Thornton has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Jarnkrok is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Thornton is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Thornton
Home
49.5% (396)
53.0% (379)
Away
42.2% (403)
52.9% (374)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Thornton
P1
41.6%
53.3%
P2
42.8%
50.7%
P3
52.5%
54.3%
OT
42.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
38.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
45.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |