Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +21.3% FO% edge overall. Ritchie wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ritchie 39.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-21.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ritchie 66.4%
Defensive zone
Ritchie 71.8%
Neutral zone
Ritchie 78.7%
Result
Calum Ritchie favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Ritchie
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Ritchie
Hertl
Last 6: Ritchie 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ritchie
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (296)
58.1% (823)
-22.0%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
56.2% (265)
-10.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ritchie is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (195).
Ritchie shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Ritchie
Hertl
Home
37.7% (162)
59.7% (561)
Away
35.2% (145)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Ritchie
Hertl
P1
33.3%
51.6%
P2
38.3%
63.8%
P3
37.6%
58.6%
Final 5 min
38.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ritchie
34.0%▲
32.0%
36.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Calum Ritchie |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |