Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Rowney on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 49.4% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 81.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Rowney
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Rowney
O'Reilly
Last 8: Rowney 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rowney
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rowney
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rowney
4
1
Rowney
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (298)
57.1% (1,367)
-7.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
59.4% (286)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (46)
52.5% (257)
-6.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rowney is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Rowney shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Rowney
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (143)
59.2% (936)
Away
48.0% (204)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Rowney
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
57.3%
P2
47.7%
57.5%
P3
50.9%
55.0%
OT
0.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
45.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 23, 2019 | 2 | 18:32 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 23, 2019 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:04 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |