Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Paquette wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 46.8% vs Ryan 54.6% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 53.1%
Defensive zone
Paquette 89.4%
Neutral zone
Paquette 71.0%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Paquette
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Paquette
Ryan
Last 7: Paquette 2-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
3
Paquette
Ryan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paquette
Ryan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Paquette
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (347)
54.9% (576)
-5.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
59.8% (112)
-31.2%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (80)
42.1% (19)
-7.1%
On power play, Ryan has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Paquette is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Paquette shoots left. Ryan is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Home / Away
Paquette
Ryan
Home
42.3% (182)
57.7% (355)
Away
48.8% (252)
52.8% (352)
By Period
Paquette
Ryan
P1
51.3%
57.9%
P2
46.1%
53.2%
P3
40.3%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
41.9%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
46.1%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 3 | 02:22 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 2 | 15:30 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |