Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paquette on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 49.9% vs Spezza 54.4% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 79.8%
Defensive zone
Paquette 64.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 59.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Paquette
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Paquette
Spezza
Last 5: Paquette 3-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Paquette
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paquette
1
0
Paquette
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
2
1
Paquette
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (215)
53.2% (763)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
60.9% (197)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (57)
57.1% (21)
-20.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Paquette is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Paquette shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Home / Away
Paquette
Spezza
Home
52.1% (167)
57.5% (518)
Away
46.6% (116)
51.8% (463)
By Period
Paquette
Spezza
P1
48.8%
55.4%
P2
51.0%
54.1%
P3
50.0%
55.5%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
49.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2016 | 3 | 11:50 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |