Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +23.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paquette wins 19.5% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 39.7% vs Spezza 52.4% (-23.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paquette 75.8%
Defensive zone
Paquette 72.1%
Neutral zone
Paquette 74.1%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Paquette
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Paquette
Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Paquette
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Paquette
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
30.1% (73)
53.7% (451)
-23.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
54.3% (92)
+45.7%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (30)
38.2% (34)
-11.5%
On power play, Paquette has a +45.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Paquette is 19.5% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Paquette shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Paquette
Spezza
Home
28.1% (32)
55.0% (282)
Away
30.6% (72)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Paquette
Spezza
P1
36.4%
53.1%
P2
27.9%
53.2%
P3
25.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
30.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
29.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2021 | 3 | 02:16 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 2 | 13:23 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |