Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.2%). Look for Paquette on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paquette wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 50.8% vs Hayes 50.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Paquette leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 59.2%
Defensive zone
Paquette 58.3%
Neutral zone
Paquette 52.5%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Paquette
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Paquette
Hayes
Last 10: Paquette 7-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paquette
1
0
Paquette
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Paquette
Hayes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
3
0
Paquette
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (529)
51.3% (672)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
50.0% (78)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
40.8% (76)
+5.9%
On power play, Paquette has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Paquette is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Paquette shoots left. Hayes is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Paquette
Hayes
Home
51.9% (339)
52.0% (404)
Away
49.6% (282)
48.6% (422)
By Period
Paquette
Hayes
P1
52.7%
50.7%
P2
53.1%
50.2%
P3
47.1%
49.8%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
50.9%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 12:53 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 1 | 06:27 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |