Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 49.9% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Paquette leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 70.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Paquette
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Paquette
O'Reilly
Last 10: Paquette 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Paquette
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paquette
2
0
Paquette
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Paquette
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (215)
56.9% (1,203)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
60.2% (329)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (57)
50.4% (280)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Paquette is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Paquette shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Paquette
O'Reilly
Home
52.1% (167)
58.6% (879)
Away
46.6% (116)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Paquette
O'Reilly
P1
48.8%
55.6%
P2
51.0%
57.9%
P3
50.0%
55.7%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
49.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 16:41 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:25 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 13:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |