Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 48.8% vs Hertl 54.1% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Paquette 50.1%
Defensive zone
Paquette 83.9%
Neutral zone
Paquette 68.4%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Paquette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Paquette
Hertl
Last 10: Paquette 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Paquette
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Paquette
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
3
2
Paquette
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (2,579)
53.6% (8,077)
-3.9%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
59.7% (1,916)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
42.5% (426)
46.0% (793)
-3.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Paquette is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,872).
Paquette shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Paquette
Hertl
Home
50.2% (1,541)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
47.4% (1,507)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Paquette
Hertl
P1
49.1%
53.6%
P2
49.9%
53.9%
P3
47.5%
55.1%
OT
20.0%
46.8%
Final 5 min
47.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
48.8%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 00:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 14:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:14 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |