Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +22.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paquette wins 36.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 39.7% vs Hertl 52.3% (-22.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Paquette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Paquette
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Paquette
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
1
0
Paquette
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
30.1% (73)
51.6% (1,084)
-21.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.0% (246)
+39.0%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (30)
44.1% (136)
-17.4%
On power play, Paquette has a +39.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Paquette is 36.5% vs left-shot opponents (63).
Paquette shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Paquette
Hertl
Home
28.1% (32)
55.2% (696)
Away
30.6% (72)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Paquette
Hertl
P1
36.4%
55.4%
P2
27.9%
54.8%
P3
25.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
30.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
29.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |