Scouting Report
Chad Rau holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Rau on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rau 51.5% vs Smith 41.2% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 59.2%
Defensive zone
Rau 89.1%
Neutral zone
Rau 79.0%
Result
Chad Rau favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Rau
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rau
Smith
Last 6: Rau 4-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rau
2
0
Rau
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Rau
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rau
2
1
Rau
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rau
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (63)
40.8% (1,023)
+11.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
39.4% (198)
+60.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.4% (9)
+55.6%
On power play, Rau has a +60.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots right. Rau is 68.4% vs right-shot opponents (19).
Rau shoots right. Smith is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Home / Away
Rau
Smith
Home
51.6% (31)
42.3% (556)
Away
55.9% (34)
39.1% (675)
By Period
Rau
Smith
P1
58.8%
39.0%
P2
57.1%
42.1%
P3
48.1%
40.2%
Final 5 min
45.5%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rau
52.0%▼
53.8%
53.8%
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Chad Rau |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Chad Rau |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Chad Rau |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 01:50 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 02:41 | Neutral | Chad Rau |