Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 47.1% vs Thornton 49.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 54.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 62.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 76.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Coyle
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Coyle
Thornton
Last 9: Coyle 7-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (562)
48.9% (583)
-2.3%
Power Play
50.7% (69)
52.5% (59)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (68)
58.3% (12)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Coyle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Coyle shoots right. Thornton is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Coyle
Thornton
Home
44.3% (332)
51.6% (341)
Away
48.8% (367)
47.0% (313)
By Period
Coyle
Thornton
P1
47.5%
53.9%
P2
47.5%
46.9%
P3
45.7%
47.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 08:31 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |