Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Donato 45.4% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 81.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 70.4%
Neutral zone
Donato 51.6%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Coyle
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Coyle
Donato
Last 5: Coyle 2-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
3
Coyle
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
43.5% (400)
+6.0%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
48.7% (119)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
33.3% (6)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Coyle
Donato
Home
47.4% (409)
50.2% (279)
Away
50.0% (360)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Coyle
Donato
P1
50.8%
44.6%
P2
46.0%
46.6%
P3
48.4%
42.0%
OT
64.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |