Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 46.2% vs Kelly 51.6% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 58.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.0%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
O'Reilly
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
O'Reilly
Kelly
Last 5: O'Reilly 2-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
O'Reilly
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
O'Reilly
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (238)
51.3% (686)
-6.8%
Power Play
48.3% (29)
69.2% (26)
-20.9%
On power play, Kelly has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. O'Reilly is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (179).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kelly
Home
50.9% (112)
52.3% (388)
Away
40.4% (156)
51.3% (421)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kelly
P1
56.5%
50.0%
P2
40.4%
51.7%
P3
36.3%
53.0%
OT
75.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
35.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
44.8%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |