Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hodgson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Hodgson 46.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Hodgson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 80.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 69.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Kelly
Hodgson
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Kelly
Hodgson
Last 10: Kelly 8-2 Hodgson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hodgson
4
7
Kelly
Hodgson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
9
3
Kelly
Hodgson
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
3
Kelly
Hodgson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Hodgson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
46.2% (2,353)
+4.9%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
48.9% (493)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
42.7% (157)
+2.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hodgson shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Hodgson is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Kelly
Hodgson
Home
52.6% (1,965)
48.8% (1,431)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.3% (1,577)
By Period
Kelly
Hodgson
P1
49.2%
47.9%
P2
49.1%
48.9%
P3
51.9%
42.3%
OT
53.5%
44.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 23, 2013 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 23, 2013 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 23, 2013 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Oct 23, 2013 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 17, 2013 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 17, 2013 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Apr 17, 2013 | 1 | 12:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 17, 2013 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 17, 2013 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 18:29 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |