Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Fraser 47.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 57.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 57.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 57.8%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Kelly
Fraser
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kelly
Fraser
Last 5: Kelly 3-2 Fraser
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Fraser
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Fraser
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Fraser
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
48.8% (332)
+2.5%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
30.0% (10)
+39.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
38.5% (26)
+11.5%
On power play, Kelly has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fraser shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Fraser is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Kelly
Fraser
Home
52.3% (388)
49.7% (189)
Away
51.3% (421)
44.8% (181)
By Period
Kelly
Fraser
P1
50.0%
44.6%
P2
51.7%
48.1%
P3
53.0%
49.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 11:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 06:32 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |