Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Fraser 46.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 57.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Kelly
Fraser
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kelly
Fraser
Last 8: Kelly 5-3 Fraser
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Fraser
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Kelly
Fraser
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Fraser
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
48.0% (1,036)
+3.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
58.3% (36)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
35.8% (187)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fraser shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Kelly
Fraser
Home
52.6% (1,965)
48.6% (661)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.0% (602)
By Period
Kelly
Fraser
P1
49.2%
46.7%
P2
49.1%
46.4%
P3
51.9%
46.2%
OT
53.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 11:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 06:32 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 09:19 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |