Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — MacKenzie shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs MacKenzie 52.9% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 76.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 73.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 76.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Kelly
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Kelly
MacKenzie
Last 6: Kelly 0-6 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
3
Kelly
MacKenzie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
1
Kelly
MacKenzie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
2
Kelly
MacKenzie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
55.1% (737)
-5.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
36.8% (19)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
48.9% (266)
-3.4%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Kelly shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Kelly
MacKenzie
Home
53.9% (297)
54.9% (506)
Away
42.1% (242)
51.4% (516)
By Period
Kelly
MacKenzie
P1
45.4%
54.5%
P2
46.1%
55.6%
P3
54.3%
48.2%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |