Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs MacKenzie 53.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 17-3 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 73.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 71.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 71.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Kelly
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
17
(20 meetings)
3
17
Kelly
MacKenzie
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
7
Kelly
MacKenzie
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
4
Kelly
MacKenzie
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
6
Kelly
MacKenzie
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
54.9% (3,660)
-3.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.9% (102)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
46.7% (1,158)
-2.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
Home / Away
Kelly
MacKenzie
Home
52.6% (1,965)
54.0% (2,527)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.1% (2,398)
By Period
Kelly
MacKenzie
P1
49.2%
51.9%
P2
49.1%
53.0%
P3
51.9%
54.0%
OT
53.5%
65.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2016 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 1 | 09:22 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 08:51 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |