Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 52.5%). Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Staal 52.3% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 54.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 69.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 51.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Kelly
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kelly
Staal
Last 5: Kelly 1-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Kelly
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Kelly
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
52.5% (1,228)
-1.2%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
54.1% (281)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
45.6% (136)
+4.4%
On power play, Kelly has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Staal is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,068).
Home / Away
Kelly
Staal
Home
52.3% (388)
53.9% (825)
Away
51.3% (421)
51.1% (856)
By Period
Kelly
Staal
P1
50.0%
54.8%
P2
51.7%
54.1%
P3
53.0%
48.6%
OT
61.5%
60.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2012 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 2, 2012 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 3 | 06:26 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Eric Staal |