Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Nielsen 48.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 20-15 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 56.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 54.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Kelly
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
15
(35 meetings)
20
15
Kelly
Nielsen
Last 10: Kelly 4-6 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
4
Kelly
Nielsen
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Kelly
Nielsen
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
10
7
Kelly
Nielsen
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
49.3% (7,608)
+1.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
54.7% (594)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
41.7% (1,420)
+3.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Nielsen is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,996).
Home / Away
Kelly
Nielsen
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.9% (4,766)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
47.1% (4,890)
By Period
Kelly
Nielsen
P1
49.2%
49.7%
P2
49.1%
47.6%
P3
51.9%
48.2%
OT
53.5%
46.6%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 23, 2015 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 29, 2015 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 1 | 14:49 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |