Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Beagle 56.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 79.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 88.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 73.0%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Kelly
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Kelly
Beagle
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
5
Kelly
Beagle
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
4
6
Kelly
Beagle
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Kelly
Beagle
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
57.5% (4,994)
-6.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
60.5% (119)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
54.2% (1,554)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Home / Away
Kelly
Beagle
Home
52.6% (1,965)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Kelly
Beagle
P1
49.2%
57.4%
P2
49.1%
57.1%
P3
51.9%
56.2%
OT
53.5%
41.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2018 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 1, 2017 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 1, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 07:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 08:28 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 29, 2012 | OT | 01:57 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |