Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Vitale 59.5% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 85.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 78.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Kelly
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kelly
Vitale
Last 7: Kelly 1-6 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
3
Kelly
Vitale
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
3
Kelly
Vitale
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
61.7% (274)
-11.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
75.0% (4)
-35.0%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
66.7% (42)
-21.8%
On power play, Vitale has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Vitale is 63.8% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Kelly
Vitale
Home
51.4% (350)
69.7% (152)
Away
45.0% (229)
56.0% (168)
By Period
Kelly
Vitale
P1
46.9%
55.9%
P2
53.6%
65.2%
P3
46.8%
66.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
68.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 1 | 11:07 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |