Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Vitale 54.6% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Vitale leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 55.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 56.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 58.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Kelly
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Kelly
Vitale
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Vitale
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
3
Kelly
Vitale
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
5
7
Kelly
Vitale
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
55.9% (1,771)
-4.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
76.0% (25)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
47.1% (297)
-2.4%
On power play, Vitale has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Home / Away
Kelly
Vitale
Home
52.6% (1,965)
56.1% (1,050)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
53.5% (1,048)
By Period
Kelly
Vitale
P1
49.2%
52.9%
P2
49.1%
53.8%
P3
51.9%
57.5%
OT
53.5%
72.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 14:13 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 1 | 11:07 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 3 | 09:34 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 3 | 02:56 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 20, 2013 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |