Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Tavares 49.4% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 60.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Kelly
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Kelly
Tavares
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
Kelly
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Kelly
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
48.6% (716)
+10.1%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
52.4% (208)
+47.6%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
33.3% (6)
+16.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +47.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kelly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Kelly shoots left. Tavares is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (532).
Home / Away
Kelly
Tavares
Home
60.0% (200)
50.7% (448)
Away
55.5% (173)
48.1% (482)
By Period
Kelly
Tavares
P1
55.9%
52.8%
P2
58.4%
51.4%
P3
60.9%
43.7%
OT
37.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 19:13 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |