Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 36-18 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 75.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 91.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 77.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Kelly
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
36
(54 meetings)
18
36
Kelly
Tavares
Last 10: Kelly 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
13
Kelly
Tavares
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
7
5
Kelly
Tavares
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
18
Kelly
Tavares
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
54.0% (16,108)
-2.9%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.5% (4,283)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.6% (620)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Kelly
Tavares
Home
52.6% (1,965)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Kelly
Tavares
P1
49.2%
55.0%
P2
49.1%
54.1%
P3
51.9%
54.1%
OT
53.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2015 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 18:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 19:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 19:13 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |