Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Toews 56.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 93.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 71.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 77.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 73.7%
26.3%
73.7%
Kelly
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kelly
Toews
Last 5: Kelly 4-1 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
55.6% (1,125)
-3.7%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
59.3% (312)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
57.4% (204)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Kelly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Kelly shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,194).
Home / Away
Kelly
Toews
Home
53.8% (442)
59.8% (858)
Away
48.1% (474)
53.3% (795)
By Period
Kelly
Toews
P1
50.2%
58.7%
P2
47.6%
55.1%
P3
54.5%
56.5%
OT
85.7%
54.8%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2011 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |