Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Toews 57.9% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 80.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 55.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 63.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Kelly
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Kelly
Toews
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
4
Kelly
Toews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
1
Kelly
Toews
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
57.2% (13,047)
-6.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
63.3% (3,252)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
53.6% (1,810)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Kelly
Toews
Home
52.6% (1,965)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Kelly
Toews
P1
49.2%
58.6%
P2
49.1%
57.8%
P3
51.9%
57.3%
OT
53.5%
58.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2016 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 27, 2014 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 27, 2014 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2011 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |