Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Staal 50.1% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 77.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Kelly
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Kelly
Staal
Last 10: Kelly 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Kelly
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
49.7% (662)
+9.0%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
61.2% (103)
+38.8%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
44.3% (149)
+5.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +38.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Kelly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Kelly shoots left. Staal is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Home / Away
Kelly
Staal
Home
60.0% (200)
50.0% (446)
Away
55.5% (173)
50.2% (468)
By Period
Kelly
Staal
P1
55.9%
50.0%
P2
58.4%
49.5%
P3
60.9%
50.5%
OT
37.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |