Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Staal 54.1% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 71.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 88.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 76.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Kelly
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Kelly
Staal
Last 10: Kelly 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
7
Kelly
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Kelly
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
55.3% (1,171)
-5.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
56.6% (173)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
42.9% (133)
+2.0%
On power play, Staal has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Kelly shoots left. Staal is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (972).
Home / Away
Kelly
Staal
Home
51.4% (350)
54.7% (720)
Away
45.0% (229)
54.0% (757)
By Period
Kelly
Staal
P1
46.9%
51.2%
P2
53.6%
57.4%
P3
46.8%
54.6%
OT
0.0%
52.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 1 | 07:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |