Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aucoin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Aucoin 48.9% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aucoin 72.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 65.7%
Neutral zone
Aucoin 52.3%
Result
Keith Aucoin favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Kelly
Aucoin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kelly
Aucoin
Last 6: Kelly 3-3 Aucoin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Aucoin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aucoin
0
1
Kelly
Aucoin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Aucoin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Aucoin
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
47.8% (320)
+10.9%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
59.1% (22)
+40.9%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
50.0% (2)
-0.7%
On power play, Kelly has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aucoin shoots left. Kelly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Kelly shoots left. Aucoin is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Kelly
Aucoin
Home
60.0% (200)
52.6% (154)
Away
55.5% (173)
45.3% (190)
By Period
Kelly
Aucoin
P1
55.9%
42.5%
P2
58.4%
52.9%
P3
60.9%
52.1%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Aucoin
50.0%▲
44.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 2 | 03:41 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 19:39 | Neutral | Keith Aucoin |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Keith Aucoin |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |