Scouting Report
Kyle Wellwood holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wellwood shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Wellwood 52.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wellwood 88.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 65.0%
Neutral zone
Wellwood 65.2%
Result
Kyle Wellwood favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Kelly
Wellwood
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Wellwood
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Wellwood
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Wellwood
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Wellwood
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Wellwood
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Wellwood
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.7% (369)
+0.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
61.4% (88)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.0% (2)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Wellwood has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wellwood shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Wellwood is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Kelly
Wellwood
Home
52.6% (1,965)
54.7% (243)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
50.7% (217)
By Period
Kelly
Wellwood
P1
49.2%
46.2%
P2
49.1%
59.6%
P3
51.9%
51.7%
OT
53.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Wellwood
54.0%▼
58.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2013 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |