Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-6.8%)
Offensive zone
Kelly 73.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 63.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 52.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Kelly
Kastelic
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
57.0% (1,613)
-5.9%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
80.0% (25)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
53.6% (274)
-8.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Kelly
Kastelic
Home
52.6% (1,965)
58.9% (895)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Kelly
Kastelic
P1
49.2%
58.5%
P2
49.1%
56.9%
P3
51.9%
55.3%
OT
53.5%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.3%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%