Scouting Report
Marty Reasoner holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Reasoner 53.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Reasoner 57.4%
Defensive zone
Reasoner 64.7%
Neutral zone
Reasoner 60.0%
Result
Marty Reasoner favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Kelly
Reasoner
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
10
(23 meetings)
13
10
Kelly
Reasoner
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Reasoner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Reasoner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
4
Kelly
Reasoner
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
4
Kelly
Reasoner
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Reasoner
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
55.7% (1,642)
-4.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.9% (72)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
45.5% (413)
-0.8%
On even strength, Reasoner has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reasoner shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Reasoner is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,389).
Home / Away
Kelly
Reasoner
Home
52.6% (1,965)
55.4% (1,032)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.4% (1,123)
By Period
Kelly
Reasoner
P1
49.2%
53.1%
P2
49.1%
53.1%
P3
51.9%
55.3%
OT
53.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Reasoner
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 15:34 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 3 | 05:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |