Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Ellis 48.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 65.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 68.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 60.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Kelly
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kelly
Ellis
Last 6: Kelly 4-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Ellis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Ellis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
48.0% (223)
+3.3%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
0.0% (1)
+69.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
50.0% (20)
+0.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +69.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Kelly
Ellis
Home
52.3% (388)
51.4% (107)
Away
51.3% (421)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Kelly
Ellis
P1
50.0%
46.7%
P2
51.7%
47.3%
P3
53.0%
50.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |