Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Ellis 46.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 58.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 72.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 57.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Kelly
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kelly
Ellis
Last 6: Kelly 4-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Ellis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Ellis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
47.3% (607)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
28.6% (7)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
42.1% (95)
+2.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Kelly
Ellis
Home
52.6% (1,965)
48.5% (303)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Kelly
Ellis
P1
49.2%
50.0%
P2
49.1%
46.2%
P3
51.9%
41.3%
OT
53.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |