Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Thompson 51.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 64.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 64.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 72.3%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Kelly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Kelly
Thompson
Last 9: Kelly 7-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
2
Kelly
Thompson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
52.6% (462)
+6.1%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
80.0% (10)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
44.4% (133)
+4.9%
On power play, Kelly has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Kelly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Kelly shoots left. Thompson is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Kelly
Thompson
Home
60.0% (200)
52.5% (324)
Away
55.5% (173)
49.8% (281)
By Period
Kelly
Thompson
P1
55.9%
49.0%
P2
58.4%
55.4%
P3
60.9%
48.3%
OT
37.5%
83.3%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 08:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 2 | 13:58 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |