Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Thompson 52.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 53.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 66.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 59.3%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Kelly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
12
(26 meetings)
14
12
Kelly
Thompson
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
5
7
Kelly
Thompson
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
8
4
Kelly
Thompson
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
54.1% (5,812)
-3.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
54.8% (135)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
47.9% (1,381)
-3.2%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Kelly
Thompson
Home
52.6% (1,965)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Kelly
Thompson
P1
49.2%
53.2%
P2
49.1%
52.9%
P3
51.9%
52.8%
OT
53.5%
47.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 02:06 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 2 | 15:47 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 08:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 2 | 13:58 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |