Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs MacKinnon 47.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 61.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 70.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 57.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Kelly
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Kelly
MacKinnon
Last 9: Kelly 6-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
2
Kelly
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
45.2% (365)
+4.5%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
57.1% (63)
-28.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Kelly
MacKinnon
Home
53.9% (297)
48.0% (225)
Away
42.1% (242)
45.8% (203)
By Period
Kelly
MacKinnon
P1
45.4%
41.1%
P2
46.1%
49.6%
P3
54.3%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2015 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |