Chris Kelly vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 70.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 60.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Kelly
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Kelly
MacKinnon
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
2
Kelly
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
3
Kelly
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Kelly
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
46.1% (11,218)
+5.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
53.3% (1,412)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
42.8% (502)
+1.9%
On power play, Kelly has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Kelly
MacKinnon
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Kelly
MacKinnon
P1
49.2%
47.4%
P2
49.1%
46.6%
P3
51.9%
46.1%
OT
53.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 09:38 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 14, 2015 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 21, 2014 | 1 | 02:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 1 | 01:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |