Scouting Report
Nicklas Backstrom holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backstrom shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 45.4% vs Backstrom 51.3% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 85.2%
Defensive zone
Backstrom 62.5%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 73.5%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
Kelly
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kelly
Backstrom
Last 8: Kelly 5-3 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
2
Kelly
Backstrom
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Backstrom
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Backstrom
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (373)
52.5% (1,108)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (128)
27.9% (61)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kelly shoots left. Backstrom is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Home / Away
Kelly
Backstrom
Home
47.5% (259)
52.5% (642)
Away
41.3% (242)
50.4% (691)
By Period
Kelly
Backstrom
P1
46.7%
50.2%
P2
42.9%
51.4%
P3
43.4%
53.0%
Final 5 min
42.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2017 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 2 | 00:33 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 1, 2017 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |