Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Stastny 55.1% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 53.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 82.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 68.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Kelly
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Kelly
Stastny
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
9
Kelly
Stastny
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
1
Kelly
Stastny
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
54.6% (10,616)
-3.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
59.1% (1,994)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
52.9% (1,119)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stastny
Home
52.6% (1,965)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Kelly
Stastny
P1
49.2%
56.3%
P2
49.1%
55.4%
P3
51.9%
53.5%
OT
53.5%
62.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2018 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 18:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 21, 2014 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2011 | 2 | 09:29 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2011 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2011 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |