Scouting Report
Reese Johnson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Johnson 51.5% (-1.6%)
Offensive zone
Kelly 71.2%
Defensive zone
Johnson 62.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 50.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Kelly
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.5% (434)
-2.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
80.0% (5)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
40.7% (81)
+4.0%
On power play, Johnson has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johnson
Home
52.6% (1,965)
50.8% (252)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.6% (268)
By Period
Kelly
Johnson
P1
49.2%
52.1%
P2
49.1%
47.4%
P3
51.9%
56.4%
OT
53.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.7%