Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Carter 49.8% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 51.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 52.2%
Neutral zone
Carter 53.4%
Result
Ryan Carter favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Kelly
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kelly
Carter
Last 5: Kelly 2-3 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Kelly
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Kelly
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
49.7% (390)
+1.6%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
57.1% (7)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
48.5% (33)
+1.5%
On power play, Kelly has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Carter is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Kelly
Carter
Home
52.3% (388)
51.5% (171)
Away
51.3% (421)
48.7% (261)
By Period
Kelly
Carter
P1
50.0%
50.7%
P2
51.7%
48.4%
P3
53.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 14:03 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Ryan Carter |