Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.7%). Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Carter 49.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 53.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 63.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 51.3%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Kelly
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kelly
Carter
Last 6: Kelly 2-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Kelly
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Kelly
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.1% (978)
+1.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
60.0% (15)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
46.4% (138)
-1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Carter is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (734).
Home / Away
Kelly
Carter
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.0% (506)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
50.3% (632)
By Period
Kelly
Carter
P1
49.2%
50.5%
P2
49.1%
48.9%
P3
51.9%
50.0%
OT
53.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 14:03 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Ryan Carter |
| Dec 29, 2010 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |