Scouting Report
Ryan Johnson holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Johnson 60.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 80.9%
Defensive zone
Johnson 86.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 82.6%
Result
Ryan Johnson favored at 83.5%
16.5%
83.5%
Kelly
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Johnson
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Kelly
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
63.8% (260)
-12.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
50.0% (4)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
63.0% (46)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Johnson is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johnson
Home
52.6% (1,965)
69.8% (126)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
58.6% (186)
By Period
Kelly
Johnson
P1
49.2%
63.0%
P2
49.1%
61.8%
P3
51.9%
66.0%
OT
53.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
65.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Johnson
66.0%▬
65.5%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Ryan Johnson |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Ryan Johnson |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |