Scouting Report
Saku Koivu holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Koivu 51.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 61.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 60.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 61.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Kelly
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Koivu
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
2
Kelly
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
1
3
Kelly
Koivu
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
51.9% (3,221)
-0.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
59.3% (437)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
48.0% (764)
-3.3%
On penalty kill, Koivu has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
Kelly
Koivu
Home
52.6% (1,965)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
Kelly
Koivu
P1
49.2%
51.1%
P2
49.1%
52.6%
P3
51.9%
51.8%
OT
53.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2012 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 25, 2012 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 2 | 18:19 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |