Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Gagner 46.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 16-6 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 50.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 89.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 78.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Kelly
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
6
(22 meetings)
16
6
Kelly
Gagner
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
3
Kelly
Gagner
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
1
Kelly
Gagner
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
2
Kelly
Gagner
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
45.4% (4,699)
+5.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
51.5% (928)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
35.0% (226)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Kelly
Gagner
Home
52.6% (1,965)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Kelly
Gagner
P1
49.2%
44.6%
P2
49.1%
46.1%
P3
51.9%
47.3%
OT
53.5%
42.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2017 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 22, 2017 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 19:38 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 3 | 04:19 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |